2-AIN-506 a 2-AIN-252: Seminár z bioinformatiky (2) a (4)
Leto 2021

Robert Challen, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Jonathan M. Read, Louise Dyson, Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova, Leon Danon. Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern202012/1: matched cohort study. BMJ, 372:n579. 2021.

Download preprint: not available

Download from publisher: not available PubMed

Related web page: not available

Bibliography entry: BibTeX


OBJECTIVE: To establish whether there is any change in mortality from infection
with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, designated a variant of concern (VOC-202012/1) 
in December 2020, compared with circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. DESIGN: Matched 
cohort study. SETTING: Community based (pillar 2) covid-19 testing centres in the
UK using the TaqPath assay (a proxy measure of VOC-202012/1 infection).
PARTICIPANTS: 54 906 matched pairs of participants who tested positive for
SARS-CoV-2 in pillar 2 between 1 October 2020 and 29 January 2021, followed-up
until 12 February 2021. Participants were matched on age, sex, ethnicity, index
of multiple deprivation, lower tier local authority region, and sample date of
positive specimens, and differed only by detectability of the spike protein gene 
using the TaqPath assay. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Death within 28 days of the first 
positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. RESULTS: The mortality hazard ratio associated
with infection with VOC-202012/1 compared with infection with previously
circulating variants was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.04) in patients 
who tested positive for covid-19 in the community. In this comparatively low risk
group, this represents an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1000 detected
cases. CONCLUSIONS: The probability that the risk of mortality is increased by
infection with VOC-202012/01 is high. If this finding is generalisable to other
populations, infection with VOC-202012/1 has the potential to cause substantial
additional mortality compared with previously circulating variants. Healthcare
capacity planning and national and international control policies are all
impacted by this finding, with increased mortality lending weight to the argument
that further coordinated and stringent measures are justified to reduce deaths
from SARS-CoV-2.